The famous pollster who was able to accurately predict the 2020 presidential election is now looking ahead to the 2024 election and has some new ideas to share. Based on what they found, it looks like former President Donald Trump is starting to see good results from his campaign.
When President Joe Biden stepped down and backed Vice President Kamala Harris, she got more support and poll numbers at first. But things have changed. As explained by AtlasIntel, Trump is gaining support in key swing states.
“The way voters act may have changed since the 2020 race,” says the National Pulse. “But every election in the U.S. is different.” Even so, new information shows that Trump is ahead in almost all of the important states. This could give him a big edge in the Electoral College.
Let’s look more closely at the numbers we have now. Trump is ahead of Harris by 4.2 points in Arizona. The same thing is happening in Nevada and North Carolina, where Trump is ahead by 3.7 and 3.6 points, respectively.
Trump has a 2.3-point lead over Harris in Georgia, but the race is still very close.
In Pennsylvania and Michigan, the races are closer, with Trump only 1.5 and 0.6 points ahead, respectively. It’s likely that these states will be very important battlegrounds where every vote counts.
In Wisconsin, Trump is only 0.2 points behind Harris, which is a bit of a surprise and shows how close the race is.
AtlasIntel’s poll shows that Trump is gaining support, but the Republicans are worried about the close margins. There is still a small chance of error in all but Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina.
The National Pulse reported that most polls still show Trump doesn’t have a big lead over Harris, even though the trend is moving in his favor.
Recent events may have changed people’s minds, especially after President Biden’s controversial comments at a Harris rally, in which he called millions of Trump supporters “garbage.”
As if things weren’t complicated enough, at an event for Harris, billionaire Mark Cuban called Trump supporters who are women “weak and stupid.”
In a CNN show, senior data reporter Harry Enten talked about a number of things that suggest Trump might have an advantage over Harris.
Enten said that averages from RealClearPolitics show that Trump is ahead of Harris in six of the seven most important swing states.
Enten said in a CNN report that Trump could benefit from people being unhappy with the direction the country is going, President Biden’s falling popularity, and more people signing up to vote as Republicans.
“Only 28% of voters think things are going well in the country.” To give you an idea of how big that number is, Enten said, “This feeling is usually around 25% when the incumbent party loses.”
“That 28% is alarmingly close to the historical 25% that has been linked to incumbent losses. This is very different from the 42% that has been linked to incumbent victories.” At the moment, not many Americans are optimistic about the future of the country, which is similar to situations where the incumbent usually loses, he said.
“There has never been a time in history when only 28% of Americans thought the country was on the right track and the incumbent party still won,” Enten said. “An approval rating of 28% has always meant that the incumbent had a loss.”
